What to happen after Georgia withdraws from CIS?
A lowered Georgian flag on Tuesday at the headquarters of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Minsk, Belarus, symbolized Georgia's withdrawal from the regional bloc that groups former Soviet republics.
Georgia was the last among those republics to join the alliance in December 1993, and was also the first to walk away from it after a five-day war with Russia over its breakaway region of South Ossetia last August.
With geopolitical races escalating in South Caucasus, what this back-off will entail for Georgia and the CIS has raised global concerns.
FIVE-DAY WAR A DIRECT TRIGGER
Russia and Georgia fought a five-day war last August, when Georgia attacked South Ossetia to retake the region that borders Russia. In response, Moscow sent in troops to drive Georgian forces out of there.
Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states two weeks after the conflict ended, but no country has followed suit except for Nicaragua.
On Aug. 14, 2008, the Georgian parliament unanimously passed a resolution to terminate the application for three agreements within the CIS framework. Four days later, the Georgian foreign ministry notified the CIS Executive Committee of the withdrawal.
The CIS Charter stipulates that formal withdrawal can only take effect 12 months after the CIS executive committee is notified of the decision.
The Georgian foreign ministry said Tuesday in a statement that the decision to withdraw from the CIS was caused by Russia's "occupation of the inalienable parts of the Georgian territory, ethnic cleansing and recognition of the so-called 'independence' of the proxy regimes set up by Russia on the occupied territories."
Analysts said Georgia's CIS admission and withdrawal were all directly related to territorial integrity and sovereignty.
In 1993, former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze decided to join the alliance to solve the territorial issue as Abkhazia announced its independence one year earlier.
A Georgian Caucasus expert said that along with the outbreak of last August's conflict, it had finally dawned on Georgia that it was totally meaningless to stay in the CIS because it could not help solve the territorial issue.
GEORGIA: POLITICALLY FREER, ECONOMICALLY ALMOST INTACT
According to Georgian media, after its secession from the CIS, Georgia would inevitably concentrate more on developing relations with the United States, NATO and the European Union (EU) in order to seek more support from the West for its domestic and foreign policies.
Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Temuri Iakobashvili believed the withdrawal was a strategic geopolitical choice as it can accelerate the country's accession to NATO and the EU.
Zurab Khonelidze, Georgia's last permanent representative in the CIS, said "the departure of Georgia will only free Russia from many obligations, including recognition in the framework of this organization of the territorial integrity of Georgia.
"We could have still used (it) to achieve something useful for our country," he added.
Peter Chkheidze, a Georgian expert on international relations, said the withdrawal could damage Georgia's political, economic and cultural ties with other CIS member states.
Leonid Slutsky, Russia's first deputy chairman of the State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee, said Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS was an imprudent and demonstrative step.
"The decision to withdraw from the Commonwealth will not give Georgia anything but unnecessary trouble and a doubtful political effect, and will only impact its citizens adversely," the Itar-Tass news agency quoted him as saying on Monday.
From an economic perspective, Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS will have limited influence on its domestic economy.
Together with other CIS member states, Georgia has signed a series of bilateral agreements on economic cooperation before it pulled out of the organization.
According to the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, Georgia remains part of the 75 multilateral agreements, which is not conditional on CIS membership. This includes the agreement on visa-free movement of nationals of the CIS member states and agreement on the creation of a free trade zone.
Moreover, Georgia is still allowed to seek economic cooperation within the framework of GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova). Ukraine and Azerbaijan, both CIS members, are Georgia's second and third largest trade partners.
However, some experts said Ukraine was dependent on Russia due to its demands for Russian gas and the Sevastopol naval base, a Russian base located on the Black Sea coast of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Azerbaijan's crude oil exports was hit hard by last August's war between Russia and Georgia.
In view of Russia's hard-line stance on the maintenance of "superior interests" in the Caucasus region, other members states may take a more cautious attitude towards the enhancement of economic cooperation with Georgia.
The Russian Foreign Ministry believed that Georgia's withdrawal would have a negative impact on the lives of its citizens because Georgia has to mull over signing new deals on visa-free movement, labor exchanges and education with other CIS members.
CIS: DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON ITS PROSPECTS
Media and experts remain at odds over the impact of Georgia's withdrawal from the regional bloc.
Russian media believe the development of the CIS would face more uncertainties after Georgia's withdrawal from the bloc. Among the problems is Ukraine, one of the three founders of the CIS. The intensified tensions and long disputes between Russia and Ukraine have cast a shadow over the prospects of the CIS.
Meanwhile, CIS member states, including Russia, have prepared themselves for Georgia's withdrawal. Therefore, Russian observers believe that Georgia's withdrawal would do no harm to the CIS nor entail any changes.
Konstantin Zatulin, a State Duma deputy and director of the Institute of CIS Countries, said the CIS would work more effectively without Georgia. The concern that other member states would follow Georgia's lead was just an overreaction.