Beating all media and public expectations, McCain made a bold decision to pick the 44-year-old and not-so-well-known female governor of Alaska Sarah Palin as his running mate.
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Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain (R-AZ) introduces his vice presidential running mate Alaska Governor Sarah Palin at a campaign event in Dayton, Ohio August 29, 2008.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo) |
Though it sounds very unconventional, it indeed seems to be a strategy of what Ray Cost, a columnist for Politico, called "a risk strategy out of well-thought calculation".
IT'S ALL ABOUT HILLARY
Opinion polls show that McCain and his Democratic opponent Obama virtually run even among male voters.
But among women voters, McCain is lagging behind by about 13 points at the present. That follows a historic pattern: In recent decades, Democratic presidential candidates always enjoy a comfortable lead against Republicans among female voters.
However, it is a little big different story this year after Hillary Clinton, once aspiring to be the first female president of the United States, beat by Obama in a fierce contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.
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Republican John McCain unveiled a major surprise in the White House race Friday with his pick of first woman governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, seen here in February 2008, as his running-mate.(Xinhua/AFP Photo) |
Obama finally emerged as the winner, but it left hostilities between his supporters and Clinton fans, including many middle-aged and elder women.
The latest results of a Gallup poll shows that even after Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, threw their support behind Obama, about 21 percent of her supporters still said they haven't made up their minds to support Obama or they will vote for McCain instead.
The McCain camp thus hopes they can use the sentiment to make inroads into the Democratic base, especially women.
When she accepted McCain's offer at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, Palin made an explicit appeal to Clinton's voters.
"Hillary left 18 million cracks in the highest, hardest glass ceiling in America," she said, "but it turns out the women of America aren't finished yet and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all."
Analysts said although the majority of female Democrats may not change their choice because of Palin, but in a close race, a certain number of defectors will make the difference.
McCain, a moderate Republican, chose Palin also because as a conservative, she can help him mend fences with the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
"I predict any conservatives who have been lukewarm thus far in their support of the McCain candidacy will work their hearts out between now and November for the McCain-Palin ticket," says David Keene, president of the American Conservative Union.
Another reason for McCain to pick Palin, brought up in a middle-class family in Alaska, is that she can help him to connect with white blue-collar voters better, especially in the so-called swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
EMBRACING CHANGE
The biggest strength of Obama, analysts say, is that he is seen as a "agent of change" in a time when 80 percent of the Americans say their country is on a wrong track.
In the just-concluded Democratic National Convention, Obama again made a pledge to change the country's direction, restoring confidence at home and U.S. reputation abroad.
As the candidate for the ruling party, McCain faces challenges to be seen as an "heir" to the unpopular sitting president, George W. Bush.
NBC political analyst Chuck Todd said the choice of Palin made it clear that McCain has realized he can't beat the trend of "change" and must embrace it by choosing someone has a reputation of reformer like Palin.
As the governor of Alaska, Palin has confronted her own party establishment to fight corruption and waste.
She has earned the reputation of a "reformer" and a "clean" politician and enjoys an 80-percent support rate in her state.
John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College, said, "the public stereotype of a Republican is a wrinkled old guy taking cash under the table. One way for Republicans to break the stereotype is with a female reformer."
Moreover, Palin's resume of having served as mayor, chairwoman of Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission will bring executive and economic management to the McCain camp.
None of McCain, Obama and his running mate Joe Bidden -- all senators -- has the expertise in economy.
As voters list economic issues as their top concern in this election, Palin will be a plus for McCain in this respect. Taking account of McCain's age, who turns 72 Friday, the 44-year-old and sports-loving Palin will help to "soften" the image contrast between McCain and 47-year-old Obama.
HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD
By choosing Palin, McCain successfully grabbed the media's focus and diverted some of the attentions to Obama's epic speech Thursday night.
Palin will also bring some new strength, but the fact that she is a political novice at the national stage poses a very high risk.
Even Republicans were caught in surprise by the choice of Palin.
Conservative commentator Pat Buchanan called it "the biggest political gamble, I think, just about in American political history."
Moreover, Palin's lack of national politics experience effectively undercuts one of McCain's major argument against Obama: inexperience.
There's only 10 weeks to go before the general election in November, and to train Palin into a good fighter at the national stage is not a small feat.
The gap of experience in foreign policy and national security affairs between Palin and her Democratic opponent Biden, who has served in the Senate for over three decades and is currently the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be a big challenge.
The two will have a national televised debate on Oct. 2 and Palin will have to make her own case for the issues that she is not so familiar with.
Analysts said McCain knows the risk of making such a choice for running mate, but in a very bad year for the Republicans, he seems to be convinced that if he does not take some risks, he may certainly lose the whole race.
